Steil Bill Bars Lawmaker Prediction Market Insider
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- Rep. Bryan Steil's proposed bill prohibits lawmakers from wagering on government policies, government actions, and "political outcomes" on prediction markets, though it does not specifically bar lawmakers from using the platforms or betting on sporting events.
- The bill's White House carve-out: Steil's legislation does not extend to White House officials, including President Trump and Vice President Vance, leaving executive-branch insider trading on prediction markets untouched.
- Donald Trump Jr. serves as a strategic adviser to Kalshi and an adviser to Polymarket, and Polymarket was a sponsor of the UFC Freedom 250 event held at the White House on Sunday.
- CFTC Chair Michael Selig and the agency claim "exclusive jurisdiction" over prediction market regulation, have filed multiple lawsuits against state-level authorities restricting the platforms, and some experts believe the legal fight could reach the Supreme Court.
- The proposed law could take effect 180 days after enactment if passed by Congress and signed by the president.
- The catalyst for renewed attention: A soldier allegedly made more than $400,000 betting on the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, who was ousted by US forces in January.
Why it matters: Steil's bill targets congressional insider trading while explicitly exempting the executive branch — a notable gap given that Donald Trump Jr. advises both Kalshi and Polymarket, the very platforms the bill aims to constrain. The CFTC's parallel claim of "exclusive jurisdiction," combined with active litigation against state regulators, means prediction market oversight is consolidating federally even as the new bill narrows its insider-trading scope to Capitol Hill only.
