College football's luckiest, unluckiest teams: What one-score games from last year say about 2026
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- Arizona State went 5-1 in one-score Big 12 games — more close-game wins than any team in the country — but outscored opponents just 145-136 across those six contests, an average margin of 1.5 points
- California went 4-1 in one-score ACC games with a +7 turnover margin yet was outscored 150-145 overall; every Cal ACC win came by four points or fewer, while its four conference losses came by a combined 63 points
- Kansas State went 1-4 in one-score Big 12 games despite a +6 turnover margin — the best turnover margin among the unluckiest teams — leading to the return of Collin Klein as head coach
- Auburn went 0-6 in one-score SEC games with a positive turnover margin; the article attributes the collapse to a horrific offense rather than bad luck, and notes Alex Golesh has been hired to fix it
- Arkansas has gone 10-34 (.227) in one-score SEC games since 2014, the worst close-game winning percentage of any team in college football over that span, ahead of East Carolina (.286) and Nebraska (.298)
- Arizona State lost QB Sam Leavitt to LSU and WR Jordyn Tyson to the NFL, departures the article cites as reasons for caution about the Sun Devils' 2026 outlook despite Kenny Dillingham's track record
Why it matters: Close-game records expose which 2025 results were likely flukes vs. repeatable, and the article flags coaching changes at Cal (Tosh Lupoi replacing Justin Wilcox), Auburn (Alex Golesh) and Kansas State (Collin Klein) as direct responses to those one-score patterns — meaning 2026 swings for those programs may owe more to schematic overhauls than to luck evening out.
