Texas Tech, Washington Lead 2026 College Football Breakouts
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- Texas Tech surged from 8-5 (54th in SP+) in 2024 to 12-2 (third, +27.6 adjusted PPG) in 2025 and is projected seventh for 2026 at 10.7 average wins, with QB Will Hammond's health and a rebuilt receiving corps as key unknowns.
- Washington rebounded from 6-7 to 9-4 (13th in SP+, +18.4) in 2025, but a transfer-portal saga around QB Demond Williams Jr. clouded the offseason; with Williams back and five experienced offensive linemen, a top-20 caliber season is projected despite a brutal Big Ten slate.
- Houston jumped from 4-8 (102nd in SP+) to 10-3 (40th) in 2025 under Willie Fritz, whose career .730 Year 2 win percentage provides cover for QB Conner Weigman and incoming RB Makhi Hughes, a former Fritz player at Tulane.
- Florida State technically qualifies as a rebound story, going from 2-10 in 2024 to 5-7 in 2025 (a 42-spot SP+ jump), though the Ashton Daniels-to-Duce Robinson combo and a defensive front-six rebuild will be tested immediately by SMU in Week 1 and a revenge-minded Alabama in Week 3.
- Northwestern went from 4-8 to 7-6 in 2025 and then hired Chip Kelly as offensive coordinator, pairing him with Michigan State transfer QB Aidan Chiles, but drew the short straw with all three projected top-five Big Ten teams coming to Evanston.
- New Mexico delivered one of college football's "delightful stories," going from 5-7 to 9-4 in 2025 after managing just two winning seasons in the previous 17 years.
- The transfer portal era has bent the regression curve: since 2022, only 50% of teams that surged by 10 or more SP+ points have fallen back the next year, down from a 61% historical average, and 24 teams qualified for that surge category in 2025 alone.
Why it matters: The transfer portal has rewritten the rules for surging college football programs—since 2022, half of the 20 teams per year that gain 10+ SP+ points keep climbing the next season, up from a 39% continuation rate over the prior two decades. For the 24 teams that surged in 2025, roughly 10 to 12 are likely to keep gaining, reshaping how analysts should weight preseason rankings when rosters turn over faster than ever.
