It's the Start of Uptober. Will Bitcoin Live Up to It? — SkimNews
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- Bitcoin starts October at $83,823, up 0.28% on the day, with the ADX at 41.5 and RSI at 61.8 confirming a strong uptrend that has stalled below $84,433 resistance.
- September closed with a 6.33% gain for Bitcoin, defying the "Red September" curse but falling short of the 7.33% pace that would have set a new monthly record.
- The Federal Reserve hiked rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4% on Sept. 16—the first hike since July 2023 in a unanimous vote—while Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation "remains elevated" and the median projection points to one more 25bp hike this year.
- Treasury yields closed September at 52-week highs, with the 10-year at 5.289% and the 30-year at 5.632%, creating direct competition for Bitcoin as a non-yielding asset.
- Bitcoin spot ETFs took in roughly $3.08 billion over nine straight days through Sept. 29, though that streak ended with $148.69 million in outflows on Sept. 30 and net outflows of $51.42 million for the week.
- Myriad prediction markets give 90% odds Bitcoin hits $85,000 in October and 70% odds of $87,500, but just 7% odds of a new all-time high before 2027.
- October's catalyst calendar stacks up: the September jobs report (Oct. 2), FOMC minutes (Oct. 7), CPI (Oct. 14), and the next Fed rate decision (Oct. 28).
Why it matters: Bitcoin's Uptober setup pits a confirmed technical uptrend against 52-week-high Treasury yields and a Fed signaling another 25bp hike by its Oct. 28 meeting. Prediction markets frame the trade: 90% odds Bitcoin hits $85,000 this month but just 7% odds of a new all-time high before 2027—a grind higher, not a blowoff top.
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