$11 Billion in Bitcoin Options Expire Tomorrow—Here's What It Means — SkimNews
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- Deribit has about $11 billion in notional Bitcoin options expiring Friday, covering roughly 135,000 BTC and one-third of the exchange’s open interest; the batch is 70% larger than August’s $6.4 billion expiry but smaller than March’s $15 billion.
- Friday’s contracts are about 86% out of the money with Bitcoin near $81,500, meaning those contracts would be worthless at current prices; settlement there would move roughly $130 million, about 1% of the headline notional.
- Max pain sits at $78,000, about $3,500 below the market, but Deribit describes the level as positioning rather than a forecast of where Bitcoin settles.
- Call options outnumber puts nearly two to one, with a 0.52 put-to-call ratio and roughly 88,700 calls against 46,500 puts; the heaviest call bets sit at $95,000 and $100,000, while the biggest put cluster is at $70,000.
- Friday’s expiry drew more than 6,000 contracts changing hands over 24 hours, the most trading of any Bitcoin-options expiry on Deribit over that period.
- Federal Reserve held rates at 3.75%-4.00% in a 10-2 Wednesday vote, with two dissenters favoring a hike; the 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.05%.
- December 25 expiry already has about 135,500 Bitcoin in options, nearly the same size as Friday’s batch and roughly two weeks after the Fed’s December 8-9 meeting.
Why it matters: For Bitcoin traders, the practical amount changing hands is far below the $11 billion face value: 86% of contracts are out of the money at the current price, and settlement there would move about $130 million, or 1% of notional. Option sellers must buy or sell Bitcoin to hedge, and those transactions can add swings without any new market news.
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