Falcons vs. Packers predictions, odds, time: Week 3 'Thursday Night Football' picks from proven model — SkimNews
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- Green Bay Packers (1-1) host the 0-2 Atlanta Falcons at Lambeau Field on Thursday Night Football with kickoff at 8:15 p.m. ET, listed as 5.5-point favorites with an over/under of 43.
- SportsLine model projects 48 combined points in the Packers-Falcons matchup, backing the Over 43.5 in 59% of its 10,000 simulations after entering Week 3 of the 2026 NFL season on a 53-41 run on top-rated picks since 2024.
- Michael Penix Jr. starts at quarterback for Atlanta, which dropped a 34-3 decision to Carolina on Sunday, while Green Bay beat the New York Jets 20-17 in overtime.
- Bijan Robinson powers the Falcons' rushing attack with 155 yards on 37 carries through two games, while Packers quarterback Jordan Love has thrown for 532 yards, four touchdowns, and one interception.
- Jayden Reed has been ruled out for Green Bay due to a neck injury, thinning the Packers' receiver corps for their home opener.
- The Over has hit in seven of the last 10 head-to-head meetings between the Packers and Falcons, and in six of Green Bay's past 10 games overall.
Why it matters: Bettors following the SportsLine model — up over $7,000 for $100 players since inception on a 53-41 top-rated pick run — get an Over 43.5 lean at 59% simulation confidence for Thursday, though Reed's absence thins Green Bay's receiver room as Love already has 532 yards and 4 TDs through two games.
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