Falcons vs. Packers predictions, odds, time: Week 3 'Thursday Night Football' picks from proven model — SkimNews
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- Green Bay Packers host the Atlanta Falcons at Lambeau Field on Thursday Night Football (8:15 p.m. ET), with Green Bay a 4.5-point favorite, the over/under set at 43, and the money line at -248.
- Green Bay (1-1) is coming off a 20-17 overtime win over the Jets, while Atlanta (0-2) was blown out 34-3 by Carolina on Sunday.
- Michael Penix Jr. gets the start at quarterback for the Falcons, and Packers receiver Jayden Reed (neck) has been ruled out for the game.
- The SportsLine model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, projects 48 combined points and backs the Over 43.5 — a bet supported by the Over hitting in 7 of the last 10 head-to-head meetings between these teams.
- Bijan Robinson leads Atlanta with 155 rushing yards on 37 carries through two games, while Jordan Love has thrown for 532 yards, four touchdowns, and just one interception for Green Bay this season.
- The model, on a 53-41 run on top-rated NFL picks since 2024, says one side of the 4.5-point spread hits in more than 60% of its simulations.
Why it matters: The SportsLine model, profitable on top-rated NFL picks since 2024, projects 48 combined points and gives value to the Over 43.5 in 59% of its 10,000 simulations — actionable data for bettors weighing a 4.5-point spread on a Packers team favored by nearly a touchdown over a still-winless Falcons squad.
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