Falcons vs. Packers predictions, odds, time: Week 3 'Thursday Night Football' picks from proven model — SkimNews
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- Green Bay Packers (1-1) open their home schedule at Lambeau Field against the 0-2 Atlanta Falcons on Thursday Night Football at 8:15 p.m. ET, with Green Bay installed as a 5.5-point favorite and the total set at 43.
- Atlanta is coming off a 34-3 loss to Carolina and will start Michael Penix Jr. at quarterback, while Green Bay's Jayden Reed has been ruled out with a neck injury after their 20-17 overtime win over the Jets.
- The SportsLine model, which simulates each NFL game 10,000 times, projects 48 combined points and backs the Over 43.5 in 59% of its simulations for the matchup.
- The Over has hit in 7 of the last 10 head-to-head meetings between these teams and in 6 of Green Bay's past 10 games overall, including two of their last three.
- Bijan Robinson leads Atlanta's rushing attack with 155 yards on 37 carries, while Green Bay QB Jordan Love has thrown for 532 yards with four touchdowns and one interception through two games.
- The model enters Week 3 of the 2026 NFL season on a 53-41 run on top-rated picks since 2024 and is up more than $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since inception.
Why it matters: The model, on a 53-41 run since 2024, gives the Over 43.5 a 59% confidence edge and one spread side a near-60% lean — actionable angles for bettors ahead of kickoff. For Atlanta (0-2 after a 34-3 Panthers loss), it's an early inflection point for Penix Jr.; for 1-1 Green Bay, a home-opener bounce-back opportunity.
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