2026 Open Championship odds, picks, date: Surprising predictions by golf model that's nailed 17 majors
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- The 2026 Open Championship tees off Thursday, July 16 at Royal Birkdale Golf Club in Southport, England — the venue's first Open since Jordan Spieth won there in 2017.
- Scottie Scheffler is the defending champion and +500 favorite, with Rory McIlroy at +800 and Tommy Fleetwood at +1400 rounding out the top of the odds board; Aaron Rai, Wyndham Clark, Spieth, and all three 2026 major winners are in the field.
- SportsLine's model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure and simulating every PGA Tour event 10,000 times, has correctly predicted 17 majors including the 2026 Masters (its fifth straight), last year's PGA Championship, and last year's Open Championship.
- Tommy Fleetwood (+1400) is the model's marquee fade call despite being the third-favorite and a hometown Englishman: he owns two career Open top-5s but missed the cut in 2024, finished 27th at Royal Birkdale in 2017, and has no 2026 major finish better than T11.
- Ludvig Aberg (+2700) is the model's top-3 projected leaderboard pick despite never having won a major — the Swede finished T4 at this year's PGA Championship and ranks among the PGA Tour's elite in both driving distance and accuracy.
- The model also has a longshot pick listed around 35-1, though that name is gated behind SportsLine's subscription.
Why it matters: The model's contrarian calls — fading the English-favorite Fleetwood and backing major-less Aberg at 27-to-1 — diverge sharply from a public-heavy odds board led by Scheffler (+500) and McIlroy (+800). With play returning to Royal Birkdale's links layout for the first time in nearly a decade, the model is wagering that course form and driving metrics outweigh the betting market's favorite-friendliness.
