2026 Open Championship odds, picks, date: Surprising predictions by golf model that's nailed 17 majors
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- The 2026 Open Championship tees off Thursday, July 16, at Royal Birkdale Golf Club in Southport, England, with defending champion Scottie Scheffler the +550 favorite and Rory McIlroy second on the board at +850.
- SportsLine's proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, simulated the tournament 10,000 times and has previously nailed 17 majors entering the weekend, including the 2026 Masters, last year's PGA Championship and last year's Open Championship.
- Tommy Fleetwood, the third favorite at +1400 and the lowest-priced Englishman, is flagged by the model as a fade pick — projected to barely finish inside the top 5 after a 27th-place finish the last time the event was at Royal Birkdale.
- Ludvig Aberg is projected as a top-3 contender at +2200 despite never having won a major, buoyed by a T4 finish at the PGA Championship and elite marks in both driving distance and accuracy on tour.
- The model's longshot slate includes one golfer going off around 35-1, with the full projected leaderboard and best bets available only on SportsLine.
- Jordan Spieth, who won this event the last time it was at Royal Birkdale in 2017, is listed at +5500 in this year's field alongside 2019 winner Shane Lowry at +4000.
Why it matters: A model with a 17-major hit record is steering bettors away from the public's third-favorite Fleetwood and toward a major-less Aberg at +2200 — a direct rebuke of the odds board on a links course where driving distance and accuracy, Aberg's stated strengths, carry weight. For bettors hunting value in a Scheffler-dominated field, the model's 35-1 longshot is the headline contrarian play.
