Predicting the full 14-team NFL playoff bracket entering Week 9: Bears make Super Bowl run — SkimNews
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- Stephen Oh simulated the remaining 2026 schedule—151 regular-season games and 13 playoff games—to project eight division winners, 14 playoff teams and a champion, while all 32 clubs remained mathematically alive entering Week 9.
- Bears took over the model’s NFC North lead after a dominating Monday-night win over the Seahawks, becoming the third team this season to receive that projection after the Vikings and Lions.
- Broncos victory over the Chiefs flipped the AFC West projection, with Denver favored to win the division for a second straight year and Kansas City’s wild-card berth projected to be the first of Patrick Mahomes’ starting career.
- Buccaneers are projected to win the NFC South at 8-9 after an 0-4 start, joining the Giants’ projected 8-8-1 division crown in an NFL-first scenario: two division winners finishing .500 or worse.
- Bears are projected to beat the Seahawks 24-21, the Buccaneers 28-19 and the 49ers 26-24, with the model crediting the Jeffery Simmons acquisition with providing the decisive defensive edge in the NFC championship game.
- Bills are projected to beat the Bears 27-26 in Super Bowl LXI at SoFi Stadium, giving Josh Allen his first championship and making Joe Brady the third coach this century to win the title in his first season.
- Bears hold a 17.96% chance to win the NFC, narrowly ahead of the 49ers at 16.99% and the Lions at 15.92%; the model also has only two other teams above 10%.
Why it matters: The model produces an NFL first: the 8-9 Buccaneers and 8-8-1 Giants would both win division titles, while the 5-3 Packers and 4-4 Rams would miss the playoffs despite finishing above .500. Chicago’s title path would include two division winners at .500 or worse, a postseason structure without NFL precedent.
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