Trump's Iran Deal Tease Pumps Stocks, No Deal Comes
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- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC's "Squawk Box" Tuesday that a deal to ensure "freedom of movement" in the Strait of Hormuz could come "today or tomorrow," sending oil prices tumbling and the Dow to record-high closes
- Donald Trump said Sunday he aborted a large-scale attack on Iran because "the perimeters of a deal has been agreed to" — a claim he has repeated dozens of times over more than five months without a deal materializing
- Iran has insisted it is negotiating only with Oman, not the U.S.; on Thursday, Iranian state media reported a draft plan blocking passage for U.S. and Israeli ships and imposing other restrictions, which a U.S. official quickly dismissed
- Vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains far below pre-war levels, when 20% of the world's oil transited the waterway, and the U.S. has reimposed a naval blockade of Iranian ports in the Gulf
- A fundamental disagreement persists: Iran wants to impose a service fee on transit while the U.S. demands pre-war free-passage restored — the U.S. stating "no party controls the lanes"
- Bob McNally of Rapidan Energy Group warned oil prices could shoot back to peak levels if military escalation resumes, calling the market "trapped in a spiky muddle-through dynamic" driven by "deeply entrenched optimism bias"
Why it matters: Iran's draft plan blocking U.S. and Israeli ships while pushing a transit fee clashes directly with Bessent's "freedom of movement" framing, meaning even an Oman-mediated deal won't resolve the core U.S.-Iran split. Traders chasing record Dow closes risk a sharp reversal if McNally's warning plays out, given vessel traffic is already far below the 20%-of-global-oil pre-war baseline and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is reportedly dwindling.
