Model's 2026 Masters Picks: Fade Aberg, Back Fleetwood
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- SportsLine's model simulated the 2026 Masters 10,000 times to generate its picks — the same model that has nailed 16 majors, including the 2025 Masters (its fourth Masters in a row), the 2024 PGA Championship, and the 2024 Open Championship
- Scottie Scheffler enters as the +550 clear-cut favorite, a two-time Masters champion and the No. 1 ranked player in the world with 20 career PGA Tour victories, teeing off at 1:44 p.m. ET Thursday
- Ludvig Aberg (+1700) is a surprising fade pick — the model projects him to finish well outside the top 5 despite a solo second and solo seventh in two career Augusta starts, citing his drop to No. 17 in the world ranking and four missed cuts in eight career majors
- Tommy Fleetwood (+2200) is flagged as a strong value pick whose odds-to-win chances exceed what the board implies, backed by five top-25 finishes in eight years at Augusta (including a T3 in 2024) and four top-10 finishes already in 2026
- Two additional longshots priced higher than +4000, including one at roughly +8000, are also being targeted by the model as potential leaderboard surges for massive payouts
- The 2026 Masters tees off Thursday, April 9 at Augusta National Golf Club, with first-round tee times beginning at 7:40 a.m. ET
Why it matters: The model's 10,000-simulation output offers a contrarian betting edge: it explicitly fades a trendy favorite in Aberg — a +1700 pick with two strong Augusta finishes — while upgrading Fleetwood from longshot to live contender based on a documented Augusta track record (5 top-25s in 8 years). With the model having hit 16 majors including four straight Masters, its willingness to buck public sentiment on Aberg and chase value on Fleetwood distinguishes it from chalk-driven prediction pieces.
