CFP Bubble Watch: Three things to watch during tonight's first ranking — SkimNews
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- College Football Playoff selection committee will publish its first of six rankings Tuesday at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN, with only three undefeated teams entering November—the fewest since the playoff began in 2014.
- In the Week 9 projection, Miami is the projected No. 1 team, leading the country in strength of record and ranking first in offensive efficiency; its 98.3% playoff probability and 18.7% title chance make it the favorite.
- BYU owns the head-to-head win over Notre Dame but carries an eight-point loss at UCF and an underwhelming win over Arizona State, while unbeaten Utah's No. 83 schedule and efficiencies outside the top 10 cloud the comparison before Saturday's matchup.
- Ohio State sits at No. 10 as the Big Ten's last projected team in; the committee will weigh a No. 18 schedule, No. 9 strength of record and No. 6 efficiency against two road losses, including a one-point defeat at Texas, and the absence of injured starting quarterback Julian Sayin.
- LSU is projected at No. 12 heading into Tuesday but is the SEC's first team out, pairing a No. 5 total-efficiency mark and a season-opening Clemson win with no statement win; Alabama has a Kentucky victory LSU lacks.
- Wake Forest is the ACC's first team out: its lone loss was a double-digit defeat to Miami, it has No. 11 strength of record, No. 7 offensive efficiency and a No. 43 strength of schedule, but no wins over currently ranked opponents.
- SMU remains in the ACC race with a 13.4% championship-game chance, a Nov. 14 meeting with Wake Forest and a road trip to Notre Dame the following week; winning both would overturn the ACC and Notre Dame CFP picture.
Why it matters: Miami enters Tuesday with the strongest case at No. 1, pairing the nation’s top offense with the best strength of record and a 98.3% playoff chance. LSU and Wake Forest are first out in their conferences: LSU ranks No. 5 in total efficiency but lacks a statement win, while Wake Forest’s No. 7 offense comes without a ranked-opponent win.
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