Mets vs. Phillies prediction, odds, time: 2026 MLB picks for Sunday Night Baseball from advanced model
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- The Phillies (41-35) host the Mets (34-42) on Sunday Night Baseball at Citizens Bank Park (7:20 p.m. ET), with Philadelphia installed as a -188 favorite and the over/under set at 8 runs.
- Bryce Harper hit for the cycle in Philadelphia's 15-3 rout on Saturday, evening the series after the Mets took the opener on Thursday.
- Phillies ace Zack Wheeler (6-1, 2.01 ERA) faces David Peterson (3-5, 5.91 ERA), whose ERA ranks sixth-worst among 117 MLB pitchers with at least 60 innings pitched this season.
- The SportsLine Projection Model, on a 22-10 run on top-rated MLB picks entering Week 13, simulated the matchup 10,000 times and projects 8.9 combined runs, backing the Over.
- The model cites Mets hitters' .803 career OPS against Wheeler as a key factor, along with a 5-1 Over record in Philadelphia's last six series finales.
- Saturday's 15-3 result marked a 4-1-1 Over run over the Mets' last six games, with none of Philadelphia's last four games going under the total.
Why it matters: The model is fading Wheeler's elite 2025 surface stats by leaning on Mets hitters' career track record against him, and pegging Peterson's 5.91 ERA — sixth-worst among 117 qualified pitchers — as the primary vulnerability driving 8.9 projected combined runs in a game where Philadelphia is a heavy -188 favorite.
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