Mets vs. Phillies prediction, odds, time: 2026 MLB picks for Sunday Night Baseball from advanced model
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- SportsLine's model simulated Mets-Phillies 10,000 times and projects 9.1 combined runs, backing the Over 8 total runs; the Over is 4-1-1 over the Mets' last six games and 5-1 over the Phillies' last six series finales.
- Bryce Harper hit for the cycle in Philadelphia's 15-3 win over New York on Saturday, evening the three-game series after the Mets won Thursday's opener.
- Zack Wheeler (6-1, 2.91 ERA noted in source as 2.01) takes the mound for the Phillies, but current Mets hitters carry a career .803 OPS against him, a mismatch the model weighs.
- David Peterson (3-5, 5.91 ERA) counters for the Mets, and that ERA ranks seventh-worst among 117 MLB pitchers with at least 60 innings pitched this season.
- Philadelphia is listed as a -188 moneyline favorite (risk $188 to win $100) with first pitch set for 7:20 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park.
- The SportsLine model entered Week 13 on a 22-10 run on top-rated MLB picks and has a stated model pick on the moneyline available to subscribers.
Why it matters: The Phillies' run of high-scoring series finales (5-1 Over) plus Peterson's bottom-tier ERA (7th-worst of 117 qualified pitchers) give the model a concrete, source-stated edge on the Over 8. Bettors following the SportsLine model — which is 22-10 on top-rated MLB picks entering Week 13 — get a specific total-runs lean rather than a vague preview, with the moneyline pick gated behind a subscription.
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