First bear-market trend line reclaim since 2025: Five things to know in Bitcoin this week
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- Bitcoin closed above its 50-week EMA — currently at $77,752 — for the first time since early November 2025, after a five-day surge to $79,550 yielded gains of up to 27%; analyst Rekt Capital warned the line has preceded macro lows in past bear markets.
- CryptoQuant data shows Bitcoin up roughly 22% month-to-date and tracking for its strongest August since 2017, with short-term holder profitability at just over 11% above the aggregate cost basis of $68,700 and the $68,000–$73,000 zone flagged as the support area to watch.
- US Treasury debt-buyback operations expanded to $4 billion each last week, sparking a Bitcoin short squeeze that liquidated a record $3.1 billion in crypto short positions across two days — a move trading desk Mosaic Asset Company characterized as a form of 'implicit yield curve control.'
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $1.9 billion over five trading days — the strongest weekly tally since October 2025, when BTC hit $126,200 — with BlackRock's IBIT alone netting more than $500 million on Thursday, per Farside Investors.
- Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivers his first Jackson Hole keynote this week, with CME FedWatch pricing 63.1% odds rates stay at 3.50–3.75% after the September FOMC meeting; consensus sees Wednesday's July PCE print at +0.1% month-on-month.
Why it matters: Above the 50-week EMA, Bitcoin now has a technical foothold — but Rekt Capital notes BTC has retested this trendline before capitulating to macro lows. The $68K–$73K zone is the line to defend, with $3.1 billion in shorts already wiped out and Jackson Hole plus the July PCE print up next.
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