BTC price eyes best Q3 in nine years: Three things to know in Bitcoin this week — SkimNews
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- Bitcoin fell under $83,000 to one-week lows after Sunday's weekly close as crypto joined US stock futures in declining on potential fresh US strikes on Iran; the $84,450 weekly close was still BTC's highest since late January.
- BTC/USD is up over 40% this quarter, its best Q3 performance since 2017 and well above the 8.6% average Q3 return since 2013, though Q4 has historically averaged 77% returns.
- Rekt Capital identifies $82,500 as the level Bitcoin must hold to confirm an inverse head-and-shoulders reversal pattern analogous to the top of 2022's accumulation range, warning that failure could send BTC back into the $60,000–$80,000 range.
- Fed rate-hike odds for October climbed from 57.7% to 70.3% in one week per CME FedWatch, following August's PCE print and a nonfarm payrolls beat of 162,000 jobs that boosted hawkish bets.
- WTI crude oil returned to $95 per barrel, gaining 3% on Monday, after Trump rejected Iran's ceasefire proposal and refused to rule out further military action.
- Key BTC price levels into Wednesday's monthly and Q3 closes include the 2026 yearly open at $88,700 and ETF investor cost basis around $86,000 above spot, with corporate treasury cost basis at $80,500 and True Market Mean near $76,700 below.
- August PCE data is due Wednesday (expected 3.6% YoY, 0.3% MoM) and September nonfarm payrolls on Friday (estimate: 83,000 jobs added), both flagged as catalysts for risk-asset volatility.
Why it matters: Bitcoin's strongest Q3 since 2017 is colliding with two simultaneous macro headwinds: WTI back at $95 on Trump's rejection of Iran's ceasefire, and a 70.3% market-implied odds of a 0.25% Fed hike in October. Rekt Capital flags $82,500 as the line between a confirmed bullish reversal and a reversion to $60,000–$80,000 — a roughly 27% drop that would erase most of the quarter's gains.
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