Ravens-Falcons Odds: Falcons Favored Without Lamar Jackson — SkimNews
Get the Sports newsletter
Daily sports — scores, transfers, the storylines from the leagues you actually follow. Free.
- Lamar Jackson (two-time MVP) is out for Sunday's game with Tyler Huntley starting at quarterback, forcing the Ravens to lean on Derrick Henry and the run game against an Atlanta team averaging 40 points per game over the last two weeks.
- Michael Penix Jr. has transformed Atlanta's offense, with the Falcons scoring 80 points in the two games since he retook the starting role after managing just 16 total points in the first two weeks under Cooper Rush.
- Bijan Robinson has rushed for 339 yards and four touchdowns in the Falcons' last two games, both wins by 21 points, with Drake London also thriving in the Penix-led offense.
- Kalshi markets list the Falcons at $0.62 (62% implied probability) to win outright and the Ravens at $0.39 (39%), with the Falcons -3.5 spread priced at $0.49 for the Yes side and the over/under of 43.5 points leaning slightly toward the over at $0.52.
- Jesse Minter has Baltimore off to a 3-1 start in his first year as head coach, with the lone loss coming in Week 2 at New Orleans, but star receiver Zay Flowers is questionable after being limited by a hamstring injury earlier this season and now dealing with a foot issue.
- The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, has Baltimore winning in 47% of simulations and the two teams combining for more than 43.5 points in over 60% of its runs.
Why it matters: The Lamar Jackson absence tilts a matchup between two-hot-streak teams toward the home Falcons, with Kalshi's 62% Atlanta price and the SportsLine model's 47% Baltimore win rate creating a roughly 15-point disagreement that traders can exploit. Bijan Robinson's 339-yard, two-game tear and Penix's 80-point offensive surge give Atlanta a concrete edge, while Huntley's track record as a backup puts the burden on Derrick Henry to keep the Ravens competitive enough to cover the 3.5-point spread.
Ask SkimNews
