U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Crumbles With New Strikes
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- U.S. Central Command carried out a second wave of strikes against Iran within 24 hours on Saturday, targeting Iranian military surveillance infrastructure, communication systems, air defense sites, drone storage facilities, and minelaying capabilities, per a CENTCOM statement.
- Iran's IRGC struck the Panama-flagged M/T Kiku tanker with an attack drone as it transited the Strait of Hormuz carrying more than 2 million barrels of crude oil, and retaliated against the U.S. strikes with drone and missile attacks on American bases in Kuwait and Bahrain.
- Trump confirmed the U.S. strikes in a Saturday Truth Social post and warned, "If that happens, the Islamic Republic of Iran will no longer exist," if the U.S. is forced to "militarily complete the job that we very successfully started."
- The 10-day-old MOU is being read differently by each side, especially regarding Strait of Hormuz shipping coordination — a gap that has fueled the renewed escalation and thrown Tuesday's planned technical talks in Switzerland into doubt.
- A U.S.-IRGC "hotline" to coordinate Strait of Hormuz traffic, agreed upon during VP JD Vance's negotiations with Iran in Switzerland last week, was still not operational as of Saturday even as tanker traffic came under fire.
- Iranian state media quoted the IRGC as threatening more forceful attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, raising the prospect that the peace process will come to a halt.
Why it matters: The MOU that ended the U.S.-Iran war 10 days ago is unraveling over Strait of Hormuz shipping protocols, with a tanker carrying 2 million barrels of crude oil hit by an Iranian drone showing what's directly at stake for global energy supply. Trump's explicit threat that "the Islamic Republic of Iran will no longer exist" escalates from failed diplomacy to potential full-scale war resumption, and Tuesday's planned technical talks in Switzerland now hang by a thread.
