Ukraine Peace Needs Four Separate Deals, Not One
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- The author argues a single 'peace deal' for Ukraine is a 'lazy over-simplification' and contends durable peace requires at least four separate agreements: a US-brokered Russia-Ukraine bilateral, an EU-Ukraine accession deal, a Russia-Europe relationship pact, and a NATO agreement that takes Ukraine's membership aspiration off the table.
- The June 7 E3 Leaders' Statement keeps roughly $300 billion in Russian sovereign assets immobilized until Russia ceases aggression and compensates Ukraine — against a World Bank reconstruction estimate of $588 billion, meaning Russia would still owe approximately $288 billion even after forfeiting those assets.
- Former State Department sanctions coordinator Dan Fried (2013-2017) is described by the author as 'the architect' of the policy linking Russia sanctions to full Minsk II implementation, which the author argues was designed to delay any peaceful settlement.
- The NATO-Russia Council was formally disbanded in December 2025, and the author proposes a NATO-Ukraine-Russia Council as a replacement forum for military dialogue and deconfliction.
- Zelensky issued an open letter to Putin last week proposing a meeting, but the author characterizes it as a 'self-licking stunt' containing 'pages of personal barbs and insults.'
- Chancellor Merz has resurfaced the idea of EU 'associate membership' for Ukraine — with no voting rights or money — as a fallback to Zelensky's 2027 accession goal, which the author calls unrealistic.
- European leaders — including Finland's Stubb, France's Macron, and Belgium's de Wever — have tentatively floated diplomatic talks with Russia, but the author says they have produced no substantive agenda and exclude Russia from their meetings.
Why it matters: The author's specific dollar figures turn abstract debate into arithmetic: $300 billion in frozen Russian assets versus a $588 billion World Bank reconstruction estimate leaves Russia on the hook for roughly $288 billion more — terms the author argues Russia will never accept, meaning the current E3 framework may extend the war rather than end it.
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