Temperature check: alarm as prediction markets lean into weather and climate bets — SkimNews
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- Kalshi secured a data deal with the Weather Company to verify weather-related bets, calling weather "one of the fastest-growing and most crucial categories" as its climate and weather market grew 500% in a year to $1.1bn.
- Polymarket hosted $1.2m in bets during last year’s Los Angeles wildfires, with users wagering on fire extent despite the destruction of thousands of buildings and at least 19 deaths.
- Kalshi claims its prediction markets can help shape weather forecasts and will appear on the Weather Channel’s app, used by over 330 million people, though scientists question how uncalibrated public opinion can produce reliable climate impact data.
- Kaitlyn Trudeau, a climate scientist at Climate Central, criticized the dehumanization of climate disasters through gamification, saying it distances people from real-world suffering and undermines empathy.
- Michael Mann, a climate scientist at the University of Pennsylvania, warned that weather and climate betting creates perverse incentives and could fuel conspiracy theories about weather manipulation.
- Federal appeals court ruled that states can regulate prediction markets as gambling, increasing legal pressure on platforms and pushing them toward climate topics as seemingly less politically sensitive.
Why it matters: As Kalshi and Polymarket turn climate disasters into tradable events, they gain access to mainstream forecasting channels while bypassing financial regulations—amplifying risks of misinformation and moral harm without reducing climate vulnerability. The $1.1bn market growth enables new revenue streams but erodes trust in scientific institutions already weakened by political cuts.
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