Nvidia's stock struggles as Kalshi traders bet chip prices are coming down
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- Nvidia shares have fallen roughly 3% over the past month, underperforming the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH), which is up 15% in the same period and 84% year-to-date in 2026.
- Wall Street has rotated from Nvidia toward memory chips and AI infrastructure, driving Micron Technology and Sandisk each up nearly 60% in the past month.
- Nvidia's B200 compute per hour price peaked at $6.11 on May 30 and dropped to $4.22 by June 21, according to Ornn's live GPU pricing dashboard.
- Kalshi traders are betting B200 compute prices won't surpass May's high before the contract resolves on June 30.
- Google agreed to pay SpaceX $920 million per month from October 2026 through June 2029 to rent AI computing capacity using roughly 110,000 Nvidia GPUs, CPUs, and memory components.
- RBC Capital Markets analysts said the Google-SpaceX rental deal should ease concerns about Nvidia losing GPU share to application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs) in the short term.
- Seoyoung Kim, a Santa Clara University finance professor, said GPU suppliers, renters, and manufacturers like Nvidia all face deep uncertainty about near-term capacity needs.
Why it matters: Nvidia's 3% monthly decline contrasts with a 15% rally in the broader semiconductor ETF, as investors rotate into memory and infrastructure plays. The 31% B200 price drop from May 30 to June 21, now priced into Kalshi contracts, suggests softening rental demand — but RBC countered with Google's $920 million-per-month SpaceX deal covering 110,000 Nvidia GPUs as proof that Nvidia's core demand is intact.
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