The incoming ‘super’ El Niño will create chaos around the world. And we are far from ready for it | Bill McGuire — SkimNews
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- The incoming El Niño is forecast to peak at a staggering 4°C, making it a "hyper" event that could mark one of the biggest global weather upheavals in a millennium, with effects lasting well into 2027.
- The 1997–98 super-El Niño peaked at 2.4°C and caused $5.7tn in global GDP losses; the current event is already at 2.7°C, raising the prospect of even greater economic damage that can suppress activity for up to 14 years.
- The UK Met Office has warned of a stormy, wet autumn and early winter, with serious — possibly epic — flooding; the 2015–16 El Niño produced the most extreme UK floods on record, and drought-weakened trees could fall in coming storms.
- India is already experiencing its weakest monsoon in 20 years as the strengthening El Niño takes hold.
- California faces the ARkStorm megastorm scenario, with potential losses of nearly $1tn, millions of flooded homes and businesses, and severe damage to tech infrastructure that could hammer the global economy.
- Global average temperatures could reach 1.6–1.7°C above preindustrial levels in 2027, making it the hottest year on record by some margin.
- The UK government is advising citizens to stockpile food while simultaneously moving to greenlight more North Sea fossil fuel extraction — a juxtaposition McGuire calls "cognitive dissonance."
Why it matters: McGuire, professor emeritus at UCL, puts the economic stakes in stark terms: the 1997–98 super-El Niño (2.4°C peak) cost $5.7tn; the current event is already at 2.7°C, with impacts potentially suppressing global GDP for up to 14 years. California's ARkStorm megastorm alone could add nearly $1tn in losses and cripple tech infrastructure with global knock-on effects.
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