Ukraine's 40-Day Drone Blitz Cripples Russian Refineries
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- Ukraine launched what Axios calls one of the war's largest drone attacks hours after Zelensky's Thursday announcement, targeting 12 Russian regions and occupied Crimea, with Russian authorities saying at least 660 drones were intercepted and explosions reported at a chemical plant in the Tula region.
- Moscow's largest refinery was hit by a massive explosion the prior week, sending black smoke over the city and producing 'black rain' in parts of the capital; Reuters sources told Axios the facility is unlikely to resume production this year and is expected to remain offline into 2027.
- Zelensky announced a '40-day influence operation' to compel Russia to sign a peace deal, declaring 'If Ukraine burns, your Moscow will burn too,' as at least three more Russian refineries were struck this week beyond the Moscow facility.
- Trump, meeting Zelensky at the G7 last week, expressed frustration with Putin and signaled he could walk back the 'Anchorage understandings' under which the U.S. had accepted Russian control of Ukraine's Donbas region in any deal, though one official said other leaders 'do not believe he will actually do something about it.'
- Russian-occupied Crimea declared a state of emergency on Friday and halted all fuel sales after Ukraine struck power stations and transport links to the peninsula, and Kyiv is also using long-range drones to disrupt supply lines to Russian forces at the front.
- Putin acknowledged earlier this month that Ukraine's drone strikes are causing some damage but said they would fail to divide Russian society, framing the attacks as aimed at 'destabilizing' the country and 'creating a sense of uncertainty about the actions of the Russian armed forces.'
- U.S.-led Ukraine diplomacy has stalled, per Axios, citing the ongoing war in Iran and the failure of multiple previous rounds, leaving it unclear whether Zelensky's drone campaign can generate fresh momentum for peace talks — with some analysts arguing the strikes will harden Russian sentiment that Ukraine 'must be fought and defeated.'
Why it matters: Russia faces a multi-year fuel-supply hit — Moscow's largest refinery likely offline until 2027, Crimea's fuel sales halted — as Zelensky's 40-day drone campaign pressures the Kremlin on both economic and military-logistics fronts. But Axios itself notes analysts who argue the blitz will harden Russian resolve rather than bring Putin to the table, and G7 leaders doubt Trump will convert his stated frustration into actual policy action against Moscow.
