The 14 college football teams poised to break through and bounce back in 2026
Get the Sports newsletter
Daily sports — scores, transfers, the storylines from the leagues you actually follow. Free.
- Texas Tech finished 12-2 in 2025 (3rd in SP+, +27.6 adjusted points per game) after going 8-5 in 2024, with a 2026 projection of 10.7 wins; QB Will Hammond's health and a rebuilt defensive front-six remain the biggest question marks despite three blowouts over BYU and Utah by a combined 97-24.
- Washington rebounded from 6-7 in 2024 to 9-4 in 2025 (13th in SP+) behind QB Demond Williams Jr., whose brief transfer departure and return threatened offseason momentum; the Huskies project 7.8 wins but face five of the Big Ten's top-seven projected teams.
- Houston jumped from 4-8 in 2024 to 10-3 in 2025 under coach Willie Fritz, whose career Year 3 win percentage sits at .725; QB Conner Weigman and incoming Tulane transfer RB Makhi Hughes lead a roster projected for 7.4 wins with seven of their final games projected within 6.3 points.
- Florida State improved from 2-10 in 2024 to 5-7 in 2025 — qualifying only technically as a breakthrough — with the Ashton Daniels-to-Duce Robinson connection flagged as fun; Week 1 (SMU) and Week 3 (Alabama) tests will quickly validate or sink the 6.6-win projection.
- Northwestern went 7-6 in 2025 (its best in five years) and hired Chip Kelly as offensive coordinator with Michigan State transfer Aidan Chiles at QB, but the Wildcats drew all three of the Big Ten's projected top-five teams on the road, threatening a 'better team, worse record' outcome.
- New Mexico emerged as a mid-major darling, going 9-4 in 2025 after five straight sub-.500 seasons, and is projected for 8.0 wins in 2026 with only two projected underdogs (Oklahoma in Week 3 by 20.2 points and UNLV in November by 0.7).
- The 2025 season saw 24 teams improve by at least 10 SP+ points — up from the 20-year average of 18.6 — and only 50% of recent surge teams regressed the next year, suggesting roughly 10-12 of last year's gainers could climb again in 2026.
Why it matters: For Big 12 and Big Ten contenders, Texas Tech's quarterback health and Washington's Demond Williams Jr. commitment are the swing variables. The 24-team SP+ surge in 2025 — well above the 18.6 20-year average — suggests the transfer era is producing more sustained turnarounds, though the author himself went just 3-for-6 on breakthrough picks last year, a useful temper on the optimism.
