Bitcoin win rate vs. S&P 500 recovers as post-midterm history favors stocks — SkimNews
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- Bitcoin outperformed the S&P 500 in 50% of Wall Street sessions over a rolling 90-session period through Wednesday, ending a prolonged stretch of more losing than winning sessions.
- Glassnode said Bitcoin’s session win rate has not exceeded 50% since March 2025, while its average per-session gains were slightly higher than the S&P 500’s.
- Capriole Investments counted seven Democratic House-and-Senate sweeps under Republican presidents among 26 U.S. midterms since 1922, excluding this year’s vote.
- S&P 500 returns after those seven election outcomes averaged 10.7% over three months, 17.5% over six months and 15.5% over one year.
- TradingView put Bitcoin’s rolling 20-day correlation with the S&P 500 at 0.63, a measure that became markedly positive in August as both rose while the US Treasury expanded debt buybacks.
- Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, said: "There is simply no better election result for markets than we just had."
Why it matters: For Bitcoin, parity restores only the frequency of winning sessions: Glassnode’s stated test for renewed relative strength is a rate above 50% that holds, even though Bitcoin’s average per-session gain is already slightly higher. For stock investors, the seven comparable election outcomes were followed by an average S&P 500 gain of 10.7% over three months and 17.5% over six months.
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