Bitcoin’s July Bottom Came 125 Days Before Midterms — SkimNews
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- Bitcoin reached major bear-market lows in January 2015, December 2018 and November 2022, approximately 71, 38 and 13 days after the preceding U.S. midterm elections.
- Bitcoin touched $57,850 on July 1, 125 days before the Nov. 3 election, then recovered about 40% to roughly $81,455 by Oct. 22.
- Bitcoin fell approximately 29% in the six months before the 2018 midterms and 37% before the 2022 vote, while its recurring weakness appears more closely tied to its own market cycles than to elections.
- QQQ fell roughly 23% from the end of September to its December 2018 low, much of the decline occurring after election day, but gained 17% in the six months before the 2014 midterms.
- QQQ dropped 17% in the three months preceding the 2022 vote; over 90 days, Bitcoin gained 26% versus QQQ’s 3%, while both fell roughly 6% over the past 30 days.
- QQQ reached an all-time high of $762.86 on Oct. 6 before pulling back, while Bitcoin’s cycle low came on July 1.
Why it matters: The July 1 low arrived 125 days before Election Day, compared with prior Bitcoin bottoms 13-71 days after midterms. That timing complicates the historical setup for investors using past cycles to mark a bottom, while QQQ’s mixed pre-election returns weaken the case for an election-driven explanation.
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