Bitcoin Bottom Window Hits 42 Days — Second Longest Ever
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- K33 Research flagged in its H1 2026 Round-Up that more than 50% of Bitcoin's supply is now held at a loss, with the 50% threshold first crossed on June 5.
- Bitcoin's 42-day bottom countdown since crossing 50% supply in loss ranks as the second-longest in BTC history, behind only the 101-day window in 2014, per K33 data.
- K33 noted historical bottom windows after the 50% supply-in-loss trigger ranged from 13 days in 2022 to 23 days in 2018, and that returns over the following year 'tend to be very solid.'
- CryptoQuant puts supply in loss at 46% as of July 17, with contributor Axel Adler Jr. estimating it remains roughly two months from levels that historically mark bear-market bottoms.
- CryptoQuant's realized cap variance (RCV) model currently sits in the bottom 6% of its historical range at a Z-score of -2.35, signaling the 'emotional premium' from prior rallies has been priced out.
- Every prior stretch where the RCV Z-score spent extended time below -2.0 — late 2018, mid-2022, early 2015 — preceded forward twelve-month returns north of 75%, per contributor Crazzyblockk.
- The most extreme RCV reading ever — a Z-score of -4.68 in November 2018 — landed almost exactly on Bitcoin's cycle bottom near $3,792.
Why it matters: K33's data caps the countdown window at 101 days from the June 5 trigger, and the RCV model's current -2.35 Z-score has only been more extreme once — November 2018, which landed almost exactly on Bitcoin's $3,792 cycle bottom. Every prior sub -2.0 stretch preceded 75%+ twelve-month returns per CryptoQuant.
