Bitcoin P&L Ratio Falls to 43-Month Low
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- Bitcoin's profit-and-loss ratio fell to a 43-month low — data the source notes could lift market sentiment, which has repeatedly plunged to near-record lows during Bitcoin's 50% drawdown from the $126,080 high set in October.
- Bitcoin has risen more than 7% since tanking to a near two-year low of $58,190 on June 25, according to the source.
- Strategy's STRC perpetual preferred stock broke from its $100 par value to below $75, and many analysts blamed that move — and fears that its dividend model is unsustainable — for triggering Bitcoin's June 25 plunge.
- Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan said the STRC incident "squeezed out excess leverage" and likely moved the market one step closer to a bottom, predicting a new bull market in the fall.
- Swan Bitcoin analyst Adam Livingston noted Bitcoin is trading only 16% above the network's realized price, a level historically tied to 41% forward returns at six months and 81% at 12 months.
- Livingston recommended buying now rather than waiting, arguing "the bottom never announces itself" and that waiting to confirm the bottom means overpaying at the top.
Why it matters: For investors weighing whether the sell-off has run its course, Livingston's historical data says past episodes of Bitcoin trading this close to its realized price (within 16%) produced 41% returns over six months and 81% over twelve — but his own warning cuts against waiting for confirmation, meaning the trade-off for sidelined capital is asymmetric: the reward for buying at capitulation is large, but the cost of hesitating until a bull market is visible has historically been steep.
