Bitcoin Profit Supply at 11.2M; Bear Not Over
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- Bitcoin supply in profit has dropped to 11.2 million coins, with 8.2 million in loss — levels CryptoQuant data places at bear market lows.
- Andri Fauzan Adziima, research lead at Bitrue, told Cointelegraph the data signals "increasing market stress, not immediate undervaluation," noting that true 2022 capitulation saw over 50% of supply in loss and 45% or less in profit.
- Adziima characterized the current phase as "early/mid-bear transition" with a potential structural bottom near $55,000, warning of "more downside or consolidation likely before a full reset."
- Bitcoin has declined roughly 52% from its all-time high this cycle — a shallower drop than the 77%–84% drawdowns seen in prior bear markets.
- Timothy Peterson said Bitcoin "tends to struggle when the dollar is strong, and the Chinese yuan is weak" due to tighter global liquidity, adding that relief requires US rate cuts unlikely before the second half of 2026 or more likely 2027.
- The US dollar index (DXY) has gained about 5% over the past two months, per TradingView data cited in the report.
Why it matters: Bitcoin holders are sitting on unrealized losses at levels well short of historical capitulation, and the macro backdrop — a 5% DXY surge, tight global liquidity from a strong dollar, and no US rate cuts expected before 2026 or 2027 — points to continued pressure before any floor forms, with analysts flagging a possible structural bottom near $55,000.
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