Bitcoin supply metric prints first 'buy' signal since late 2022 as bear market continues
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- Bitcoin's Advanced Net UTXO Supply Ratio printed a 'buy' signal in late June and early July for the first time since November 2022, per CryptoQuant contributor Axel Adler Jr.
- The ratio had dropped into deeply negative territory before crossing back above the signal threshold on the rebound, triggering the BUY print across multiple sessions.
- Adler said confirmation requires the ratio holding above zero alongside rising BTC price, warning a move back into negative territory without price support would invalidate the signal.
- Bitcoin's 90-day SMA of supply held in loss has not yet reached levels seen during previous bear markets, with Adler forecasting a reversal target within roughly two months.
- Darkfost, also a CryptoQuant contributor, wrote that the UTXO signal 'won't stop BTC from going lower' and identified a renewal of demand as the necessary next step for a confirmed bottom.
Why it matters: Bitcoin traders searching for a cyclical bottom now have their first supply-based buy trigger in nearly four years — yet the analysts flagging it stress it marks seller exhaustion, not a confirmed floor. With supply-in-loss still above historical reversal levels and demand yet to return, BTC remains exposed to further downside despite the new signal.
