Bitcoin win rate vs. S&P 500 recovers as post-midterm history favors stocks — SkimNews
Get the Finance newsletter
Daily finance — markets, central banks, M&A, the prints that move money. Free.
- Bitcoin outperformed the S&P 500 in 50% of Wall Street trading sessions over a rolling 90-session period through Wednesday, according to Glassnode data.
- Glassnode said Bitcoin’s win rate had not exceeded 50% since March 2025, although its average per-session gains were slightly higher than the S&P 500’s.
- Capriole Investments found seven of 26 U.S. midterm elections since 1922, excluding the current vote, in which Democrats won both chambers under a Republican president; the S&P 500 then posted an average 10.7% gain over three months.
- S&P 500 gains averaged 17.5% six months after those seven comparable midterm outcomes and 15.5% after one year.
- Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, said, “There is simply no better election result for markets than we just had.”
- TradingView puts Bitcoin’s rolling 20-day correlation with the S&P 500 at 0.63, a measure that has become markedly positive since August.
Why it matters: For Bitcoin holders, the 50% reading restores parity but not clear outperformance: Glassnode says a rate above 50% that holds would show Bitcoin regaining strength, while the S&P 500 averaged a 10.7% three-month gain after seven comparable midterm sweeps. A 0.63 correlation shows the two assets are moving more closely together.
Ask SkimNews
