Cargo Ship Struck in Hormuz as US-Iran Talks Progress
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- Qatar said mediators including itself, Pakistan, and Oman had reached "very progressive stages" in coordinating between Washington and Tehran, with draft proposals being exchanged as of Tuesday.
- Trump asserted on Monday that talks with Tehran had started and framed it as Iran's "last chance," while Iran denied any negotiations and said its only discussions are with Oman about the strait.
- Brent crude fell more than 2% on Tuesday after Qatar's comments, extending Monday's steep losses on hopes of a deal to unfreeze traffic through the strait, which normally carries about a fifth of global oil and LNG shipments.
- A dry bulk cargo vessel was struck by an unidentified projectile near the Strait of Hormuz off Oman's coast, according to the UKMTO; the crew abandoned ship and one seafarer remained missing.
- Iran is seeking full control over inbound shipping through the strait and visibility over outbound traffic with the ability to intervene, having rejected an Omani shared-oversight proposal last week.
- U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said a deal to reopen Hormuz could be reached by Tuesday or Wednesday, telling CNBC there was a chance an agreement would come "today or tomorrow."
- The U.S. Army has used up much of its stockpile of highly accurate long-range missiles during the war, according to three people familiar with the data, raising concerns about readiness for future conflicts.
Why it matters: The source explicitly states that granting Iran full control over the strait "would be a major shift in the regional balance of power in Tehran's favour" and undermine the case that Operation Epic Fury weakened Washington. Combined with three sources reporting the U.S. Army has burned through most of its high-precision long-range missile stockpile, any deal that hands Tehran operational leverage in the strait would directly undercut the stated goals of the February campaign while Washington's coercive leverage is eroding.
