Obesity rates have doubled in England since 1993 - what's going on?
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- King's Fund analysis shows England's adult obesity rate rose from 15% in 1993 to 30% in 2024, meaning 14 million adults are now classified as obese — 7 million more than if rates had held steady.
- Young adults aged 16-24 saw the steepest increase, with obesity or severe obesity tripling from 6% to 18%, leaving 1 million in that age group living with obesity — 700,000 more than the 1993 baseline would predict.
- Dave Buck, senior fellow at the King's Fund, said governments have 'talked the talk, but not sufficiently walked the walk,' calling the trend a failure to tackle 'this obesity timebomb.'
- Contributing factors identified include the shift from manual labour to sedentary office work, falling food prices, the proliferation of fast-food outlets and delivery apps, and concentration of unhealthy food options in deprived areas.
- Government interventions span 14 national obesity strategies since 1992, including Blair-era junk food ad bans on children's TV, the 2018 sugar levy on soft drinks, and Labour's January 2025 ban on junk food advertising before 21:00 on TV and online.
- Weight loss drugs such as Wegovy (restricted to NHS patients with BMI 35+ and a weight-related condition) and Mounjaro (available from specialist NHS clinics since March 2025) are increasingly used, with many patients buying them privately.
- Obesity costs the UK economy an estimated £126bn per year, including roughly £12bn — about 7% of the NHS annual budget — while Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty warned it would be a 'societal failure' if lifelong medication became the only answer.
- France is cited by Whitty as a country that has kept obesity levels stable, illustrating that the rise is not inevitable.
Why it matters: With 14 strategies over 30 years failing to bend the curve and obesity now costing the NHS £12bn — roughly 7% of its budget — the question is whether the current government will adopt the harder regulatory levers (zoning fast food near schools, restricting BOGOF deals) that have been repeatedly shelved, or whether weight-loss jabs become the de facto default treatment for a now-doubled patient population.
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