Model Flags Montgomery, Cook as 2026 Fantasy Busts — SkimNews
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- SportsLine's model identified 2026 fantasy football busts after running 10,000 season simulations, with the article noting it correctly predicted Terry McLaurin's 2025 collapse (career lows of 582 receiving yards and 3 TDs) despite his top-50 ADP.
- David Montgomery (Texans, age 29) is flagged as a bust at his current ADP of ~pick No. 52, with the model ranking him in the same tier as Jaylen Warren and 10th-rounder Kenneth Gainwell due to expected snap-sharing with rookie Woody Marks (900+ scrimmage yards).
- James Cook (Bills RB) is flagged as a bust despite being the 5th RB off the board at ADP ~No. 9 overall; the model ranks him RB No. 10 behind Derrick Henry and Chase Brown, citing his higher fumble rate and Josh Allen as a touchdown vulture.
- The model is also fading one of the first six wide receivers off the board, ranking him barely inside the top 10 — the specific identity is gated to SportsLine.
- The model's past calls include AJ Brown as a 2020 sleeper, Jonathan Taylor's 2021 monster season, and correctly predicting CJ Stroud would regress in 2024.
- Top 10 PPR ADP (via CBS) is led by Jahmyr Gibbs, Bijan Robinson, Ja'Marr Chase, Puka Nacua, Jonathan Taylor, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Christian McCaffrey, Amon-Ra St. Brown, James Cook, and Chase Brown.
Why it matters: Fantasy drafters in the next three days risk burning high picks on players the model says are overvalued — specifically Montgomery (ADP ~52, but model says fourth/fifth round is risky) and Cook (ADP top 10, but model says late-second/third round). The model's track record on McLaurin and Stroud gives the bust calls weight for managers weighing ADP against projected value.
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