Prediction Markets Expect Prolonged Strait of Hormuz Disruption—And Oil Traders Are Betting Big
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- Polymarket gives only a 28% chance that Hormuz traffic normalizes by April 30, despite the April 8 ceasefire.
- Myriad prices a 63.2% probability Brent will climb to $120 per barrel, while a 36.8% chance it drops to $55.
- BIMCO advises vessels to avoid the strait, citing an uncleared mine threat; Kpler video shows tankers reversing course, keeping traffic under 5% of pre‑war levels.
- Iran imposes crypto tolls of roughly $1 per barrel, collecting up to $2 million per vessel in Bitcoin, Chinese yuan and USDT, financing its war effort.
Why it matters: Oil traders and Indian importers lose as Brent hovers near $120 and shipments stay under 5% of normal, while Iran pockets $2 million per vessel in crypto, tightening its war‑financing cash flow.
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