Thailand Braces for China Tourist Shift Back to Japan
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- TAT is closely monitoring the revival of China–Japan tourism ties, warning that a lifting of China's outbound group tour restrictions to Japan would erode Thai tourism in the second half of the year
- Chinese tour agents reportedly resumed selling July and August Japan packages before some paused sales after the issue drew public attention last week
- Chinese arrivals to Japan plummeted 52% to 1.7 million in the first five months, attributed to Beijing's restrictions on Chinese tour groups
- Thailand's 2025 Chinese arrivals plunged 33.5% to 4.47 million, driven by scam-related confidence issues, prompting TAT to slash its 2026 forecast to 5 million from an initial 6.73 million target
- The US–Israeli war with Iran has disrupted global travel including in China, and the 60-day peace deal has not yet triggered a quick resumption of international flights, per TAT's East Asia director
- China–Japan flights dropped more than 55% this summer, and Chinese airlines are favoring shorter, less fuel-intensive routes to South Korea and Hong Kong over Thailand
- Thailand still recorded 17% growth in Chinese visitors to 2.5 million as of June 20, and TAT expects the Chinese market to keep growing through 2027 despite regional competition
Why it matters: Thailand's tourism sector — already nursing a 33.5% drop in 2025 Chinese arrivals and a revised 2026 target of just 5 million (down from a 6.73 million goal) — faces a fresh headwind if Beijing lifts Japan group-tour restrictions, potentially redirecting price-sensitive Chinese travelers back to a competitor. TAT's own data shows China–Japan flights down 55% this summer and Chinese airlines already preferring shorter, more profitable routes, so even a partial rebalancing of Chinese outbound demand away from Thailand compounds the Iran-war drag on the 2026 forecast.
