Tropical Nations Face Lasting Warming Even After Net Zero — SkimNews
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- Dr. Andrew King and colleagues at the University of Melbourne published findings in the journal Environmental Research Letters showing tropical regions, home to many of the world's poorest people, have warmed more significantly relative to their historic range than wealthier countries in Europe and North America.
- King's study found the warming inequality would persist indefinitely if global emissions reach net zero — the implicit goal of the 2015 Paris agreement — and would take "many decades to begin to reverse" only under a net-negative emissions scenario where CO2 is actively drawn from the atmosphere.
- King stated the regions least responsible for emissions face the greatest warming burden: "The regions that have not caused the warming are those that experience the most warming."
- King warned the fate of the poorest regions depends on how much greenhouse gas is emitted before net zero is reached, noting that "even when we get to net zero, we have still emitted an enormous amount of carbon into the atmosphere and its effects will continue for centuries."
- Tropical ecosystems such as some coral reefs evolved in narrower temperature ranges than higher-latitude ecosystems and will continue to be heavily affected for longer as the world cuts emissions.
Why it matters: The research implies the Paris agreement's implicit net-zero goal is insufficient to correct the climate inequality baked into current emissions. Wealthy, high-emitting nations in Europe and North America face less warming relative to historic norms than tropical countries that contributed least to the problem — and that disparity persists indefinitely without aggressive net-negative carbon removal, leaving the planet's poorest populations exposed for centuries.
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