U.S. nonfarm payrolls surge in August; unemployment rate holds at 4.1% — SkimNews
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- U.S. nonfarm payrolls surged by 162,000 jobs in August, nearly tripling the 56,000 forecast from the Reuters economist poll and reversing a previously reported July decline to an upwardly revised 21,000 gain.
- The unemployment rate held at 4.1%, which the source frames as evidence the labour market remained stable heading into the Fed's policy decision.
- Fed Governor Christopher Waller said Thursday he was inclined to argue for holding rates steady if upcoming data confirmed inflation was cooling, prompting markets to price a 52% chance of a September hike—down from 63.2% on Wednesday per CME's FedWatch.
- The 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbed to 6.71%, a more than one-year high per Freddie Mac data, as rising Treasury yields driven by inflation concerns and Fed silence tightened borrowing conditions.
- Labour market momentum had decelerated since spring after surging earlier in the year, partly blamed on the oil price shock and supply chain strains from the U.S.-led war with Iran.
Why it matters: The 162,000 print against a 56,000 forecast essentially wipes out the dovish repricing triggered by Waller's Thursday comments—the 30-year mortgage at 6.71% means housing affordability worsens if the Fed hikes, but the blowout jobs data makes a hold harder to justify.
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