US August Jobs Triple Forecasts; Fed Hike Odds Climb to 62% — SkimNews
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- U.S. employers added 162,000 jobs in August, nearly triple the 56,000 forecast and the largest gain in five months, while the unemployment rate held at 4.1% and labor force participation rebounded to 61.6%.
- Financial markets repriced Fed rate-hike odds to roughly 62% from 49% after the report, with the August CPI print due before the September 15-16 meeting that will settle whether the central bank moves.
- Leisure and hospitality (+62,000) and local government education (+42,000) accounted for more than 60% of the gain, while the information sector shed 23,000 jobs and financial activities lost 11,000, both partly attributed to AI adoption.
- Long-term unemployment rose by 159,000 with the median duration climbing to 11.4 weeks, and the average workweek lengthened to 34.4 hours — the longest since March 2024.
- Healthcare hiring slowed to 13,000 versus a 32,000 monthly average, with economists linking the drop to the revocation of Temporary Protected Status for Haitian immigrants.
- Wall Street traded lower, the dollar gained, and the 30-year fixed mortgage rate hit 6.71% — a one-year high — despite the strong headline print.
Why it matters: The August print flipped Fed hike odds from 49% to 62% ahead of the September 15-16 meeting, but a rate hike now lands as the 30-year mortgage rate hits 6.71% — a one-year high — and as the Trump administration's immigration crackdown simultaneously suppresses the break-even hiring rate the economy needs to absorb workforce growth.
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