World almost certain to endure record hot year by 2030, UN warns
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- World Meteorological Organization (via a UK Met Office report) estimates an 86% probability that at least one year between 2026‑2030 will out‑hot 2024, making a new record year almost certain.
- UN climate chief Simon Stiell warned that the current Europe heatwave and similar extremes in India and Asia underscore the urgent need to cut fossil‑fuel emissions, noting clean power is now cheaper and faster to deploy.
- Dr Leon Hermanson, lead author of the WMO report, said an El Niño expected for late‑2026 raises the odds that 2027 could become the next record‑breaking year.
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration projects a 96% chance of an El Niño developing Dec 2026‑Feb 2027, with a 35% chance it will be a “super” El Niño, further amplifying global warming.
- Paris agreement target of limiting warming to 1.5 °C over a 20‑year period is now judged unlikely to be met, while the 2 °C ceiling remains possible only with urgent emissions reductions.
Why it matters: Governments and power producers face rising health costs and infrastructure strain as the UN reports an 86% chance of a record‑hot year by 2030, while cheaper, faster‑to‑build clean‑energy options open market opportunities for renewable firms.
