Bitcoin Hits $86K as Fed Hold Odds Double — SkimNews
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- Bitcoin traded at $86,757 on Friday, up 3% on the day and 2% on the week after a September that broke the month's losing reputation; it remains about 31% below its year-ago record.
- August core PCE came in at 3.0% against 3.3% expected, pushing futures odds of a Fed hold at the October 28 FOMC to 74%, up from 35.8% a week ago.
- September nonfarm payrolls rose only 29,000 against forecasts of about 90,000, with unemployment edging up to 4.2% and July and August revised down by a combined 60,000.
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $2.65 billion in September and $6.34 billion across Q3, bringing net assets to $109.3 billion; Morgan Stanley's ETF alone took in more than $200 million last month.
- The 10-year Treasury yield sits at its highest since 2002, and Nexo analyst Iliya Kalchev notes futures open interest is down about 12% from its September 22 peak, in the bottom decile of its one-year range.
- Fed officials John Williams ("no need for urgency") and Vice Chair Philip Jefferson signaled patience, though Williams kept one more hike in his baseline for later this year.
Why it matters: The $6.34 billion in Q3 ETF inflows came against a rate hike and a 10-year yield at its highest since 2002, suggesting allocation-driven demand from wealth managers like Morgan Stanley rather than liquidity-chasing. But the 29K jobs print could force the Fed into the conversation it has been avoiding about whether the labor market is turning, putting December back in play for a move.
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