Bitcoin Surges to $86K as Weak Jobs Cement Fed Hold Bets — SkimNews
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- Bitcoin traded at $86,757 on Friday, up 3% over 24 hours and 2% on the week, but remains roughly 31% below its year-ago record.
- Federal Reserve hold odds for the October 28 meeting jumped to 74% (from 35.8% a week earlier) after August core PCE printed 3.0% versus 3.3% expected, per CME FedWatch.
- Nonfarm payrolls rose just 29,000 in September against ~90,000 expected, with unemployment edging up to 4.2%; July and August were revised down by a combined 60,000.
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $6.34 billion in Q3 (including $2.65 billion in September), bringing total net assets to $109.3 billion, though 2026 YTD net inflows remain under $1 billion after Q1 and Q2 outflows.
- The 10-year Treasury yield sits at its highest since 2002 even as Nexo's Iliya Kalchev counts ETF inflows on 10 of the last 11 sessions, totaling roughly $3 billion.
- October has historically been Bitcoin's strongest month, averaging an 18% gain over the past decade — the so-called 'Uptober' seasonal pattern traders are now leaning into.
- Analysts split on leverage: Kalchev sees futures open interest in the bottom decile of its one-year range, while HashKey's Tim Sun says it rose alongside price.
Why it matters: Soft inflation and a 29,000 payroll print have swung Fed hold odds to 74% from 35.8% in a week, clearing room for Bitcoin's break above $86K alongside $3 billion in ETF inflows over 11 sessions. But 10-year yields at their highest since 2002 and the Fed still projecting another hike this year leave December back in play, making the October 28 FOMC the swing event for whether the Uptober trade extends or stalls.
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