Bitcoin volatility spikes 90% as bottom nears $60k
Get the Finance newsletter
Daily finance — markets, central banks, M&A, the prints that move money. Free.
- Bitcoin price hovered around $63,484, and analysts suggest the market may have already bottomed near $60,000.
- DVOL (Deribit's 30‑day implied volatility) and BVIV (Volmex's 30‑day implied volatility) surged to 90%+ in early February when Bitcoin fell to almost $60,000, a level historically linked to market bottoms.
- Bitcoin historically saw 90% volatility spikes before bottoms in August 2024 (price near $50,000) and November 2022 (price below $20,000 after the FTX collapse).
- VIX reached a one‑year high of 35% on March 9, a month after Bitcoin’s volatility peak, and stays below the 60%+ levels seen during the April 2025 crisis.
- Spot BTC ETFs, launched in early 2024, have aligned Bitcoin’s market structure with traditional equities, making implied volatility a “fear gauge” akin to the VIX.
- Analysts warn Bitcoin could still face a deeper sell‑off, but the decline in DVOL and BVIV suggests peak fear may have passed.
Why it matters: Traders and long‑term investors stand to benefit if Bitcoin truly bottomed near $60k, as the drop in DVOL and BVIV suggests peak fear has passed, while short‑term speculators risk further losses. The divergence from the VIX also shows crypto pricing risk ahead of equity markets.
