Bitcoin Volatility Falls, but Put/Call Ratio Hits 2021 Highs
Get the Finance newsletter
Daily finance — markets, central banks, M&A, the prints that move money. Free.
- Bitcoin's realized volatility fell from 80 to 50 over the past month as the cryptocurrency stabilized near $69,891, according to a VanEck report.
- Traders paid $685 million in put option premiums over the past 30 days, down 24% month-over-month but still above 77% of monthly observations since the start of 2025.
- The Bitcoin put/call ratio jumped as high as 0.84 and averaged 0.77 — the highest marks since 2021, signaling unusually strong demand for downside hedging relative to bullish bets.
- VanEck noted that when options markets have shown this level of fear historically, Bitcoin has tended to recover, with the current defensiveness "closer to market bottoms than tops."
- Long-term Bitcoin holders (1+ year) appear to be slowing their selling, with BTC transfers among that cohort falling month-over-month.
- Bitcoin trades nearly 45% below its all-time high of $126,080 set in October, despite a 5%+ gain over the past month and a roughly 1% decline in the last 24 hours.
Why it matters: The $685 million in put premiums and 0.84 put/call ratio represent the strongest defensive Bitcoin positioning since 2021 — yet VanEck's own data shows this exact setup has historically preceded recoveries, not further declines. For long-term holders already slowing their selling, the contrarian read is that peak fear may already be priced in at $69,891.
