Bitcoin put premiums hit record high as fear spikes
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- Bitcoin traders spent about $685 million on put options in the last 30 days, pushing put premiums relative to spot volume to an all‑time high of roughly 4 basis points (about 3× mid‑2022 levels).
- Put/call open interest ratio averaged 0.77 and peaked at 0.84, the highest level since June 2021, indicating strong demand for downside protection.
- Realized volatility fell from around 80 to just above 50, and futures funding rates eased to 2.7 % from 4.1 %, showing leveraged speculation cooling.
- VanEck’s six‑year analysis finds that similar options skew readings have historically preceded average Bitcoin gains of 13 % over 90 days and 133 % over 360 days.
- On‑chain activity remained weak, but miner selling stayed contained, suggesting limited supply pressure despite defensive positioning.
Why it matters: Investors buying costly puts are hedging against further drops, but VanEck’s six‑year data shows such defensive spikes have historically been followed by sizable Bitcoin gains, meaning current hedgers could profit from a rebound while short‑term traders lose leverage opportunities in the near term.
