US-Iran Hormuz Stalemate Costs Iran $17B as Both Sides Hold
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- Iran is charging ships up to $2 million for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, and several Asian shipping firms have agreed to pay despite the fees violating international maritime law, according to DW
- The US has imposed a naval embargo turning back vessels carrying Iranian oil exports, but Iranian ships continue to slip through, meaning neither blockade has delivered decisive results
- Iran is losing roughly $435 million per day in trade — nearly two-thirds from crude oil exports — translating to an estimated $17 billion public finance hit over 39 days, on top of $144 billion in damage from earlier US-Israeli strikes
- Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar are pressing Trump to shelve further strikes and give negotiations more time, warning that a frozen conflict will derail their post-oil economic transition plans worth hundreds of billions of dollars
- Trump faces domestic pressure from surging oil prices and inflation ahead of November midterms, while his on-off military threats have reportedly backfired — Iran interprets them as US reluctance to escalate
- The US is demanding a full Hormuz reopening, an end to all Iranian nuclear enrichment, and no sanctions relief without major concessions, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio telling NATO ministers in Sweden the US 'has to have a Plan B' if Iran won't compromise
- Iran is pursuing long-term regional ambitions beyond the war itself, seeking to push Gulf states to expel the US and bring the region under an Iranian security framework, per Gulf International Forum's Dania Thafer
Why it matters: With the blockade costing Iran an estimated $17 billion and oil prices squeezing American consumers ahead of November midterms, the pressure to reach a deal is mounting on both sides — but Iran's reported goal of expelling US influence from the Gulf means even a reopened strait may not produce a stable settlement.
