Clarity Act Odds Hit 43% After Trump Ethics Deal Reports
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- Polymarket odds for the Clarity Act passing in 2026 climbed to 43% on Monday, up from 32% on Friday and a record low since the market began trading in January
- Trump reportedly agreed to an ethics provision at a July 16 meeting with GOP Sens. Bernie Moreno and Cynthia Lummis and White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt, though no bill text has been released and the White House has not commented
- The ethics provision addresses how much political officials can profit from crypto while in office, a question sharpened by Trump's memecoins and his family's World Liberty Financial stake, which financial disclosures last month showed earned him millions
- Democrats say they have not seen bill text and no draft has been publicly released; the Senate faces an early-August deadline to vote on the bill
- Bitcoin, ether and XRP recorded gains following the Polymarket movement, though traders largely attributed the rally to AI and semiconductor stock strength rather than the crypto bill
- The Clarity Act would create the first comprehensive federal framework for digital assets, splitting oversight between the SEC and the CFTC
Why it matters: The 43% implied probability is priced on unverified reports — no bill text exists publicly, Democrats have not seen a draft, and the White House has not confirmed details. With an early-August Senate deadline looming, bettors are pricing a political deal that remains entirely unconfirmed, while traders credit the actual token rally to AI and semiconductor momentum rather than legislative progress.
