84% of Fire-Vulnerable Species Face Higher Risk by 2100
Get the Health newsletter
Daily health & science — research, biotech, public health, the studies worth knowing. Free.
- University of Gothenburg researchers, working with Chalmers University of Technology, published the Nature Climate Change study and found 84% of fire-vulnerable species will face higher wildfire risk by 2100
- Xiaoye Yang, the study's lead author, said species with small geographic ranges are most vulnerable and are concentrated in South America, South Asia, and Australia — many already endangered
- Under a moderate scenario (~2.7°C warming), the team projects the global wildfire-affected area will grow 9.3% and fire seasons will lengthen 22.8%, with some regions' seasons doubling
- The study combined 13 climate models with a machine-learning method to forecast fire changes and then assessed risk to 9,592 IUCN Red List species whose survival is currently threatened by wildfires
- Parts of Africa may see reduced wildfire area due to a wetter projected climate, a regional counterpoint to the global trend of increasing risk
- Moderate emissions could cut the increase in species vulnerability by more than 60% versus a high-emissions scenario, with New Zealand, South America, and Arctic-adjacent areas benefiting most
- Yang warned that current conservation strategies for vulnerable plants and animals risk underestimating future threats if they do not account for fire-driven disturbances
Why it matters: Conservation planning for 9,592 IUCN-listed species has largely overlooked fire as a primary threat. With 84% of fire-vulnerable species facing increased risk under even a moderate 2.7°C warming scenario, the researchers show that emissions cuts could reduce that vulnerability increase by more than 60% — meaning the policy choices made this decade will determine whether thousands of already-threatened species face an additional blow.
